Compared to the crash of 2008, the next crisis will actually be even worse

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By Cormac Lucey It is 10 years since the Irish government’s fateful decision to guarantee the liabilities of the Irish banks. That rubber-stamped the country’s plunge into financial disaster, following the collapse two weeks earlier of Lehman Brothers, which kickstarted the international financial crisis. As with all meltdowns, there had been plenty of warnings. The share price of Bank of … Read More

Multinationals obscure our strong indigenous performance

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By Cormac Lucey A century ago, the North was the economically advanced part of the island. This helped unionism mobilise against nationalism: opposing a united Ireland didn’t just involve rejection of Rome rule; it was also a renunciation of economic backwardness. In the ensuing hundred years, and particularly over the past 30 years, the relative economic situation has completely reversed. This … Read More

What happens when our corporate tax regime is kicked into touch?

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By Cormac Lucey What does a sports team do if its star player gets injured and is unable to play or, even worse, is forced into retirement? The simple answer is that the coach needs to anticipate such eventualities and develop a pipeline that could replace the star. The Ireland rugby coach Joe Schmidt (pictured above) has managed two great … Read More

Ireland puts all its chips on multinationals, but the EU house wants its cut

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By Cormac Lucey The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic think tank headquartered in Paris. The organisation published a detailed report on the Irish economy recently. Its conclusions regarding our recent performance were understandably positive, but it warned that the country’s economic prospects “are clouded in uncertainty”. The good news is that the robust economic … Read More

Short-term professional politicians are unwise to drop unpopular austerity

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By Cormac Lucey Having been at the top of politicians’ priorities for the past decade, austerity is fast falling out of fashion. Our new Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, wants to boost infrastructure with his predecessor’s rainy day fund. Donald Trump wants to stimulate American economic activity by cutting taxes. It has even been reported that a split has emerged in the … Read More

Soaking the rich (and your supporters) – again

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By Cormac Lucey, in The Times, Digital Edition Now that the recession is over, you may have thought that tax increases are a thing of the past and that the happy days are here again — but you would be wrong. Two weeks ago, The Sunday Times reported that Fine Gael and the Labour party are planning to introduce new … Read More

BIS Storm Warning – is the Cult of the Central Banker about to End?

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By Cormac Lucey, in the Irish Sunday Times, 20 December 2015 The public mood searches for simple beliefs, regardless of whether they are justified. A century ago, homosexuality was regarded as a bestial crime; today it is regarded as normal. Forty years ago, central state planning of the economy was regarded as destructive; today central bankers are celebrated as folk … Read More

Ireland’s should support its own entrepreneurs and reduce over reliance on FDI

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By Cormac Lucey, Irish Sunday Times, 13 December 2015 Humans are distinguished from other species by our greater capacity to learn from the past and to adapt to the present. But that can sometimes lead to imperfect results. We have a tendency to search for “silver bullets”: single factors that explain complex problems or single solutions to fix them. This … Read More